Victorious or not, O’Toole’s Big Bet was the right move

The Conservative Leader gambled on taking the Tories closer to the political centre – and remaking his party for postpandemic times

As results Monday night showed the Liberals on the way to forming the next government, Erin O’Toole must have wondered if his Big Bet had been a bad gamble. The Conservative Leader wagered his and his party’s future on a major strategic shift that aimed to take the Conservatives closer to the political centre. It was the right call, though he had little choice.

Mr. O’Toole took over the leadership of a Conservative Party still dominated by the legacy of Stephen Harper, who united the conservative movement and led it to victory in 2006, followed by almost a decade in government.

But the former prime minister undermined his coalition of western, rural and suburban Ontario voters, many of them immigrants, by actions seen as intolerant, especially toward Muslims: urging citizens to report “barbaric cultural practices” on a tip line; stripping Canadian citizenship from dual citizens convicted of certain crimes; proposing limits on the wearing of niqabs. It contributed to his defeat at the hands of Justin Trudeau in 2015.

His successor, Andrew Scheer, could not shake suspicions that socially and culturally conservative views would insinuate their way into any government he led. Suburban immigrant voters remained wary of the party. Without those voters, Conservatives could not win government.

After securing the party leadership last year by calling himself a “true blue” conservative, Mr. O’Toole executed a strategic pivot aimed at winning over moderate voters. He talked up the rights of workers, women and LGBTQ Canadians.

His election platform promised increased funding for health care, put a price on carbon and offered portable pensions for gig workers. There were even business subsidies for new hires.

Over the course of the election, he presented a cheerful, open disposition. That and a surprisingly progressive platform made it harder for the Liberals to accuse the new leader of a hidden agenda. To that extent, the Big Bet worked.

Justin Trudeau went into this election campaign asking for a majority government. By the end of the campaign the Liberals and Conservatives were in a dead heat. Any outcome remained possible, depending on the vote splits, but the Conservatives appeared to have brought the highflying Liberals down to earth.

As he became better known, Mr. O’Toole became more popular. At the beginning of the election campaign, he badly trailed Mr. Trudeau as preferred prime minister, according to the polls conducted by Nanos Research for The Globe and Mail and CTV. By the end of the campaign, the two were practically tied.

If you had asked any Conservative operative in July, when the Liberals seemed on the cusp of a majority, “How would you feel if the Grits and the Tories were tied going into election day and O’Toole and Trudeau were equally popular?” most of them would have been delighted and relieved.

But all this came at a cost. The party is restive. Harper loyalists remain unconvinced by Mr. O’Toole’s leadership skills and progressive tendencies. The more socially conservative wing of the party feels ignored.

Mr. O’Toole’s pivot to the centre sent the most intensely right-wing voters – anti-vax, opposed to high levels of immigration and dismissive of global warming – over to Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party, while winning over few Liberal/Conservative switchers in exchange. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP accounted for most of the drain in Liberal support.

And in his efforts to limit the drain to the far right, the Conservative leader may have harmed his chances with the suburban voters he most sought. Why did he continue to champion testing rather than mandatory vaccinations, despite widespread support for vaccine passports across the country? Why did he initially promise to lift a ban on some restricted weapons? The Liberals made hay with those issues.

On the morning of the election, the final polls showed the Conservatives about where they usually are: favoured by three in 10 voters or so. After all his efforts, Mr. O’Toole did everything with his party except grow it.

Some would argue that the time has come to pivot the Conservative Party back to its roots, to focus on law and order, tax cuts, limited regulation. That would be a mistake. The pandemic has made progressives of us all. And even without COVID-19, the Conservative Party of Stephen Harper is ill-suited to the third decade of the 21st century. Every year there are hundreds of thousands of new immigrants. Every year the suburbs expand. Every year, the small towns get smaller and family-owned farms fewer.

Moderate suburban voters will support Conservative government. Most provincial governments are conservative, of one stripe or another. Many would vote Conservative federally as well, if they could trust the party: a Conservative Party of fiscal responsibility and individual freedom; a party that takes pride in our country while recognizing where we have fallen short; a party that supports business but understands the vulnerability of workers, that protects property but cares for the earth.

Erin O’Toole bet big that he could build and sell such a party. It didn’t work this time. But he could still be the next prime minister.

Mr. O’Toole’s pivot to the centre sent the most intensely right-wing voters – anti-vax, opposed to high levels of immigration and dismissive of global warming – over to Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party, while winning over few Liberal/Conservative switchers in exchange.