Federal Conservatives are fighting for the soul of their party, writes Gary Mason. Can it survive?

After underperforming in the election, the future is uncertain for Erin O’Toole, writes Gary Mason – and the Tories themselves

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced in August that he was considering making COVID-19 vaccinations mandatory for federal employees, no one feared the news more than his principal political opponent: Erin O’Toole.

The Conservative Opposition Leader and his brain trust were preparing for an election call at any time. Now, they had to decide how they would respond to the idea of mandatory vaccinations, a measure Mr. O’Toole knew would be opposed by a defiant group of freedom fighters in his caucus.

Mr. O’Toole and his top advisers immediately convened a meeting to discuss how they would deal with the issue on the campaign trail, including how they would answer the question of whether all of their candidates were fully vaccinated. They were certain the Liberals and the NDP would make this a condition for running under their respective banners. What would the Conservatives say?

“A minority of our caucus viewed mandatory vaccinations as a human-rights issue,” a senior party source told The Globe and Mail. “Many of us regarded this view as deeply misguided and wrong, but if we hadn’t respected it we would have faced a full-scale revolt with a number of our MPs.” (The Globe is not identifying the sources in this story because they do not have the authority to speak publicly.)

If there was a turning point in the 2021 federal election campaign, this was it: the move by Mr. O’ Too le to kowtow to a minority in his caucus – believed to be a couple dozen – for whom the idea of making vaccines mandatory was a civil-rights issue. This decision represents a microcosm of the challenge now facing the Conservative Leader – reconciling his desire to position his party in the middle of the political spectrum with the reality his efforts will be resisted by an influential element in his caucus who don’ t share their leader’s more progressive inclinations.

Already playing out, I would argue, is a fight for the soul of the Conservative Party of Canada, a fight that, broadly speaking, pits party supporters west of Ontario who believe the CPC should reflect a stricter sense of conservative values and principles (the old Reform Party wing) against those who support the leader’s wish to put the word “progressive” back in the conservative brand and become relevant in growing urban areas in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

It is a battle between those who see the influence they once had in the party under Stephen Harper being corroded, and a new generation of conservatives who believe strongly that the party needs to be less white, less old, more urban, more female and generally one that better reflects the cultural demographics of the country. It is a battle that could become a war that could, I believe, lead to an implosion of the tenuous coalition that was fused 18 years ago, when the Canadian Alliance (the successor to Reform) merged with the Progressive Conservatives.