Hiding places sought for the current investing storm

These are difficult days for investors. Stocks are sliding toward bear market territory. The bond market hasn’t seen losses of this magnitude in decades. And it doesn’t look like the turmoil will end soon.

The war in Ukraine grinds on, with Russian leaders recklessly hinting at the possible use of nuclear weapons. China’s economy, the economic leader in recent years, is bogged down. COVID-19 is still a force, contributing to supply chain problems around the globe. Inflation rages while central banks raise interest rates en route to levels unseen since the run-up to the financial crash of 2008.

Not surprisingly, I’m being bombarded with questions about where to hide from this storm. Here’s one from a reader who asked that her name be withheld.

“I am 61 years old and have invested in Vanguard Retirement Income ETF (VRIF-T). It has a 50/ 50 bond/stock portfolio. Is it wise to keep this ETF during this economic uncertainty? I like the dividends, which are almost 4 per cent. Does VRIF pay dividends regardless or does it take from investors’ principal when its share price has decreased? Could I do better with another ETF? I need dividend/ETF income and the Vanguard Conservative ETF does not pay as high a dividend as this one.”

This lady is looking for low-risk cash flow, as are many of our readers. VRIF is theoretically designed to offer that. It purports to be a conservative ETF, suitable for someone like our reader.

The portfolio is equally divided between stocks and bonds. In normal times, this asset weighting should achieve the fund’s stated objective of providing “a combination of consistent income with the possibility of some capital appreciation.” But these times are anything but normal. Both bonds and stocks are in downtrends that probably won’t end soon.

These times are anything but normal. Both bonds and stocks are in downtrends that probably won’t end soon.

As a result, this conservative fund is showing a total return loss of 9.81 per cent year-to-date, as of the end of April. Investors may be wondering why they are paying a management expense ratio of 0.32 per cent for this type of performance.

The fund makes monthly distributions, which are currently nine cents per unit ($1.08 per year). That works out to a yield of 4.5 per cent based on a recent price of $23.77.

At first glance, that looks enticing – until you realize that the market price per unit is down $3.27 so far this year (to May 13). Distributions during that period have totalled 36 cents. In other words, the yield is illusory – you’re losing much more of your capital than you are receiving in cash flow. You’d be better off putting your cash in a savings account and withdrawing whatever you need. Of course, this may change in the future, but that’s what you’re facing right now.

What are the alternatives? The bank account offers the least risk, but the return is negligible. A GIC ladder is equally safe (assuming it’s covered by deposit insurance) and will provide a better interest rate.

If our reader wants to stay with Vanguard and is prepared to live with more risk, she should consider the Vanguard FTSE Canadian High Dividend Yield Index ETF (VDY-T). It invests in a portfolio of large, dividend-paying Canadian companies, including the banks, Enbridge Inc. (ENB-T), Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T), and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ-T). A word of caution, however: The portfolio is heavily overweighted to two segments – financials (57.1 per cent) and energy (26.3 per cent). That’s more than 83 per cent of the assets, a huge bet on just two sectors.

So far, it’s been working. The fund posted a five-year average annual compound rate of return of 10.8 per cent to the end of April and was ahead 6.3 per cent yearto-date at that point. Distributions vary from month to month, so there is no consistency of cash flow. The last payout was 11.5 cents per unit on April 29. The trailing 12-month total is $1.599, for a yield of 3.6 per cent at the current price. At first glance, that seems less than the yield on VRIF, but as we’ve seen that’s not really the case.

The bottom line is there are no easy solutions in times like these. Investors must decide whether to take more risk in the hope of improved returns or hunker down in cash and/or GICs and wait it out.