U.S. Fed likely to signal a coming pullback in economic support

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected this week to send its clearest signal yet that it will start reining in its ultralowinterest rate policies later this year, a first step toward unwinding the extraordinary support it’s given the economy since the pandemic struck 18 months ago.

Many economists think the Fed will formally announce a pullback in November, in response to a steady recovery from the pandemic recession and an acceleration in inflation that has raised widespread concerns. This week’s Fed policy meeting could lay the groundwork for that announcement.

When their meeting ends Wednesday, Fed officials are set to keep their short-term benchmark interest rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, near zero. They are also likely to maintain their US$120-billion in monthly bond purchases, which are intended to hold down long-term loan rates. In December, the Fed said it would continue those purchases until the economy had made “substantial further progress” toward its goals of maximum employment and annual inflation averaging 2 per cent over time.

In a speech last month, Fed chair Jerome Powell said such progress had already been met for inflation, with prices having spiked this year amid shortages of manufactured goods and components, from cars and computer chips to paint and building materials.

Mr. Powell also said “clear progress” had been achieved in job growth and that if hiring remained healthy, it “could be appropriate” to start reducing the bond purchases this year. A surprisingly weak August jobs report made it less likely that the Fed would formally announce a reduction in September and more likely it would do so in November or December.

The central bank could signal in a statement it will release after its meeting ends Wednesday that it plans to soon announce a reduction in the pace of its bond purchases, and Mr. Powell could reinforce that message in a news conference to follow.

“A dud of an October jobs report could change these plans,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase and a former Fed staffer, “but it would probably take something quite bad to knock them off track now.”

The Fed on Wednesday will also update its quarterly projections for growth, unemployment and inflation through 2024. It will also provide a forecast for how its benchmark rate will change into 2024. In their previous such estimate in June, Fed officials collectively forecast that they would begin raising their key short-term rate in 2023. This week, it’s possible that the updated forecast will predict the first rate hike by the end of 2022.

The Fed’s rate forecasts are unlikely to prove accurate, particularly for 2024. But they can provide insights into how quickly policy makers think they will need to raise rates in coming years.

At his news conference, Mr. Powell will face a delicate task: He will try to signal that the Fed will soon begin withdrawing its economic stimulus, while simultaneously reassuring investors, consumers and business leaders that it won’t move so fast as to derail the recovery from the recession.

This week, it’s possible that the updated forecast will predict the first rate hike by the end of 2022.